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Democrats Energize After Roe Knockdown. Will They Have The Juice Come Midterms?

Photo credit: VCU Capital News Service on Flickr. License here.

If you’re reading this you’ve heard the news. The SCOTUS is planning to knockdown Roe vs. Wade, a legal decision under the sovereignty of The Constitution of The United States that supposedly affirms a woman’s right to abortion. Abortionist protesters ran to the steps of the SCOTUS hall to voice their disdain, not after a second following the leak from Politico. Their signs featured slogans like “The people are supreme“, “Not going back” (coupled with an image of a coat-hanger) and “You can’t stop abortion“.

The barrage of signage was confusing. On one hand abortionists message they refuse a return to the days of alleyway abortions, but on the other, they threaten to continue in aborting their children regardless of what the law says. The messaging is doubly obscure considering the signage saying “Our blood is on your hands” and “abortion saves lives“. The alleyway abortions—the procedures these signs are alluding to—are voluntarily adopted by their constituents. This messaging, somehow, conclude the deaths of mothers who opt for rogue abortions falls on anyone but themselves.

Needless to say, the Democratic voter base was emboldened after the SCOTUS leak. One may postulate the leak was a deliberate move to send electricity through their dying voter base. Albeit illegal, that’s not a bad idea. The DNC is losing voters right and left. The Red Tsunami is here.

“… it’s not clear that it will give the party any significant boost in the upcoming midterm elections.” a Vox reporter noted in a recent column about the SCOTUS decision on Roe. The reporter hints Republicans can brag they’ve finally delivered on something they have been working on for years, and that this may backfire because most Americans think women Roe should be untouched.

This is true. A vast majority of American are okay with Roe. About 7/10 in fact. To think this will embolden the Democrat base and offset recent gains by Republicans is far from reality, however.

The numbers don’t lie. According to an Axois poll, Hispanics are more concerned over inflation than they do COVID-19 (the pullback on COVID hysteria makes sense now). Only in December 2021 were these metrics flip-flopped. Hispanics cared more about the pandemic back then, but this is no more.

In recent months the concern about America’s economy has far surpassed the disease. This flippening might be subtle in nature, but it’s bad news for a DNC that depends on Hispanic voters. It might be more treacherous for Dems regarding the Black vote. 92% of Black voters went for Biden in the presidential race. But, according to the New York Post only 69% of those voters still support the president, and an impressive 20% strongly disapprove.

It isn’t disaffected white liberals who are dragging down Biden’s approval rating. It’s their (former?) base: minorities. Barely a fourth of Hispanic voters support Biden. And, as more time passes, Blacks are dissenting.

Perhaps Democrat voters will be fervent come midterms, but the numbers of that base will have dwindled. A voter’s conviction counts for nothing in a game meant for numbers. 100 dispassionate voters will always beat 1 zealous voter. The headcount is what determines elections in the end, and at the moment, the DNC is losing heads in droves.

The rhetorical device of a Politico columnist illustrates the amount of ground Democrats need to gain to survive come midterms: “If Biden can preside over a spring and summer that brings an end to Covid-dominated America, if masks come off and schools stay open, if inflation is tempered, if the spike in crime fades, if the Republicans tear each other apart in the primaries, if the leading GOP presidential candidate faces criminal indictments, if (as now seems likely) the redistricting process is less brutal than first feared, then November may not be the cruelest month of Democratic nightmares.”

The above statement by Jeff Greenfield—who leans to the left—was published this February. Democrats have taken heed and throttled their dispersement of COVID related media, but only a few months after the column would inflation hit it’s highest point since 1941. Crime is up tens of percentage points, and it seems Republicans are uniting among a commons et of values and political strategy (finally some offense) for once. Greenfield’s rhetoric turned out to be a type of cynical prophesy.

Democrats won’t have the juice come midterms if the current political—and cultural—narrative continues its trajectory.

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